Our bias towards naive empiricism leads many to falsely believe that consistently reliable predictions can generally be drawn provided data has been gathered from a controlled setting. However, as 'Coaches Still Vexed by Going For 2' illustrates, strategic decision making is inherently uncertain and context specific even in the highly controlled world of NFL Football. Social scientists have no choice but to incorporate both uncertainty and context into their conclusions. The 'takeaway' message from all of this? Beware of 'takeaway' messages.
Here's a quiz from the article. I think even nonsports fans would enjoy the
full piece.
Here are 4 situations. Should you go for two?
1. Ahead by 5 at the end of the first half.
2. Behind by 2 at the end of the first quarter.
3. Behind by 10, 12:30 left in the game.
4. Ahead by 8, beginning of the fourth quarter.
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